Wednesday, December 8, 2010

what fraud looks like...

If you go on the Provisional Electoral Council website, you can find a list of all the reports with results from each polling booth and each polling center. The following are some reports from the Ecole Nationale Mixte voting center in Ouanaminthe (Nord-Est), in which there are a total of 43 booths.
Going through each report, you notice the following tendency:
On average 120 people (out of 400 assigned) voted in each booth
More than half of them voted for Mirlande Manigat
Less than 10 people voted for Jude Celestin

 This is what almost all of the reports look like for this center: 
Total Votes:114, Manigat: 94, Celestin: 6

Total votes: 134 Manigat: 102 Celestin: 9

And then (hidden in the middle of the list) you have this random report:

Total votes: 333, Manigat: 108, Celestin: 212 

So in this one booth, not only did 333 of the 400 people go vote (as opposed to about 120),  over half of those people voted for Celestin (as opposed to less than 10). Did I mention that the voting booths are organized alphabetically? Maybe most of the people with last names starting with an M decided to go vote, and over half of them voted for Celestin?

For a complete list, or if you want to look for irregularities yourself (it's kind of fun): Liste de Proces Verbaux


  1. keep these articles coming for those that arent so well informed on the electoral process!

  2. Wow, Thanks for sharing

    Bijoux A~

  3. Thanks for keeping us informed. Continue posting articles on Haitian electoral fraud because the world is looking at this.

  4. This is incredible. How can they sleep at night? We should hold the CEP accountable!

  5. Violent Protests Erupt in Port-au-Prince After Election Results Are Released
    December 8, 2010 by Frank Thorp

    We then quickly drove towards our houses (we live almost next-door to each other), but as we were driving we passed by the market which had a large group of people congregated around it. Amongst the protesters was a man who works with the CEP that I had met while getting my credentials. I approached him and asked him how he was doing. He explained that he was scared, and that he needed to get out of the market area. “I have CEP on my back,” he explained, “these guys are going to kill me.” He looked around nervously as he scarfed down some street food. “They’re going to burn down the city,” he whispered, “this is not good.”
    He explained that the people are unhappy with the results, and that they should be…as they were incorrect. “President Preval put pressure on us,” he explained, “we were forced to include Celestin in the second round.” I was shocked, this man was clearly scared for his life, yet he was divulging this huge bomb of information that the President of Haiti forced one candidate out of the run-off, and inserted his own hand-picked candidate into his place. “We kicked Martelly out of the race, and now the people are going to destroy the city,” he said. I prodded further, asking him what the correct percentages were. “Manigat had 39%, Martelly had 27%,” he said, “and Celestin had 15%.” If these are, in fact, the correct results, then Michel Martelly has been cast aside from the second round of an election that he fairly won a chance to participate in.

    The man had been abandoned by his colleagues at the CEP who had “escaped to the hills”, and he pleaded with us to give him a ride to his home in lower Delmas, which is not a good part of town (especially considering what was happening). Things were quickly escalating, and the people around us were starting to give the man dirty looks and yelling angerly at him. We told him to jump on the back of the motorcycle, “We need to get out of here, NOW,” Ben exclaimed as he started the bike. We took the man down the street to an empty street corner and let him off, going any further would have been dangerous as ahead of us in the road was a newly started fire. As we pulled away the man stood in the middle of the road, searching for somewhere to go, or someone to bring him to safety. He had been abandoned by his co-workers, and now had to defend himself amongst his own people, all because of a decision the CEP was forced to make.

    We went straight home, passing a barricade that a group of men were putting up at the entrance to our neighborhood. Ben, graciously, allowed me to drive his motorcycle home, as the streets were no longer safe to walk on. “If you’re going to go, go now,” he hastily said, “and don’t stop.” Ben is a really level-headed guy, so when he says that it’s not safe you know it’s not safe. I accelerated down the road towards my complex as a group of men were congregating in an alley ahead of me, and made it safety home as the sound of gunshots filled the air.

    The following days are expected to be filled with more protests and, I’m assuming, an appeal by Martelly. According to the man from the CEP, these results are final, and they will now just move on to the run-off, but I was also told that the final results would not be released until just before Christmas, and that these were just preliminary. Either way the people here feel slighted, and are upset that yet another election has resulted in the same fraud that has permeated their government for decades.

  6. the math is screwed from the very start. If only 400 ballots are assigned per booth, then the total number of ballots (valid+invalid+unused) exceeds 400. If this is done across the board then the count is totally arbitrary and should be declared null and void.

  7. These results may be final for the Préval gang but not for the sovereign people of Haiti! Should they not give the people who they have chosen the people will round Préval's gang and him as well to give him what titid had proposed ! The weapon that smells good!

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  9. Préval stood and addressed the nation underlining the participation of the OEA and CARICOM as "juges de lignes". Then does that mean that these two entities are also reviewing/overseeing/assisting the data entry into whatever system they have to generate these reports? If so, are they in bed with Préval? Did they miss it? I mean the inconsistencies stick out like a sore thumb, how can you miss this?

  10. Hey this is really interesting - I wonder if we can can scrape the data and analyze it a bit more to point out more blatant flaws do some more sophisticated statistical analysis?! Do you know if anyone is working on this? If not we should try to get some people to do that.

  11. Hey, I know some people are working on pointing out other ways fraud was done by comparing carbon copies of the results to the official CEP results on their website (see Haiti Democracy Project:
    Based solely on the CEP's reports (like I did above), it becomes complicated to decide which reports are fraudulent, since in the end it's a judgment call (are over 200 votes considered suspicious? over 300 votes?). Depending on which standard you set and which reports you take out based on that standard, you get different results. Look out for a blog post about that.

  12. C'est de la fraude, car statistiquement il ne peut y avoir une telle différence, un tel écart entre des bureaux d'un même centre vote. L'échantillon que représente les noms commençant "M", est pareil à l'échantillon "R" ou "P". Les M, les Pet les R vivent tous dans le même quartier ou la même section communale. Mais allons plus loin, si ce cas est possible a Ouanaminthe, il est possible ailleurs, aux Cayes, à Jacmel, à cite Soleil. En plus il est avéré que les résultats inscrits sur les procès-verbaux peuvent être modifiés au profit des candidats de l'Inité au Centre de tabulations,alors on peut logiquement se demander dans les deux cent mille et quelques voix octroyées gracieusement au Candidat du pouvoir Jude Celestin, quelle est donc sa part réelle et bon courage a ceux qui vont recompter. En arithmétique, tout est lié, ainsi enlever les voix volées pour Jude Celestin du décompte final fera baisser le nombre d’électeurs ayant pris part au vote ( Taux de participation ) et le résultat de toute cette procédure, s'il elle est conduite honnêtement pourrait être le constat d'une élection de Mne Manigat dès le premier tour . A bon entendeur salut.